In addition to the worst public health crisis in a century and a major economic recession, the year 2020 also witnessed a highly charged presidential election unlike any the nation has ever seen.The global COVID pandemic had less of an effect on election administration in Colorado— relative to other states—because Colorado has employed a vote by mail system since 2013. Most of the nearly 3.3 million ballots in the 2020 election were submitted by mail or returned to ballot drop-off sites. Turnout among active voters was 86.9 percent, which corresponds to a voting eligible turnout rate of 76.4 percent. The results of the 2020 elections in Colorado produced few legitimate surprises. The Joe Biden and Kamala Harris ticket carried the state with 55.4 percent of the vote to 41.9 percent for Donald Trump and Mike Pence. The party composition of the state’s House delegation remained unchanged, with four Democrats and three Republicans elected to 2-year terms. Political novice and business owner Lauren Boebert defeated Republican incumbent Scott Tipton in a primary election for the state’s third congressional district.
Boebert’s firebrand political style, characterized by incendiary rhetoric and enthusiastic allegiance for President Trump, large plastic growing pots catapulted her to a surprising 9-point primary win over Tipton, who had served five terms in the House. Boebert’s brash campaign included vociferous support for the second amendment and tacit backing of various QAnon conspiracy theories. Despite numerous campaign controversies, Boebert emerged victorious in the general election where she defeated Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush by 6 percentage points in Colorado’s most competitive congressional election of 2020. Party control of the General Assembly remained with the Democrats, who maintained a 41-24 advantage in the House and increased the size of their majority by an additional seat in the Senate where party division stands at 20 Democrats and 15 Republicans. There was not a governor’s election in the 2020 election cycle following the election of Democratic Governor Jared Polis in 2018. The contentious presidential election took center stage as a result, although neither Trump nor Biden held a campaign event in Colorado, and the Democrats ultimately won the presidential popular vote in the state by a substantial margin. As Colorado solidified its status as a blue state in the Electoral College, many polls suggested a more competitive race for U.S.
Senate between Republican incumbent Cory Gardner and former governor John Hickenlooper. Following a short-lived candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hickenlooper launched a bid to unseat the one-term incumbent Gardner, viewed by many as the most vulnerable Senate Republican running for reelection. Gardner was widely considered the second most vulnerable incumbent Senator in this cycle after Democratic Senator Doug Jones from Alabama. Hickenlooper emerged victorious as expected on election night, defeating Gardner by nearly 10 percentage points receiving 53.5 percent of the vote. Several economic and budget related ballot measures appeared on the statewide ballot in 2020, including a proposal to reduce the state’s income tax rate from 4.63 percent to 4.55 percent, which passed with robust support. Voters also approved Amendment B, which repealed the Gallagher Amendment that established residential and non-residential property tax rates in the Colorado Constitution. Although tax increases have historically been unpopular in the Centennial State, the passage of proposition EE raised taxes on cigarettes, tobacco, and other nicotine products such as e-cigarettes and vaping cartridges. Stemming from recent controversies surrounding the use of state fees to circumvent constitutional requirements imposed by the Taxpayer Bill of Rights , Proposition 117 will require voter approval of future state enterprise funds with projected or actual fee revenue exceeding $100 million within its first five years. The passage of Proposition 118 created a new family and medical leave program funded by a payroll tax split by employers and employees that will allow workers to take up to 12 weeks of paid leave. Colorado’s historical passage rate is about 35 percent, but in 2020 a total of nine of the eleven statewide measures passed.
The only two that failed were Proposition 115, which sought to ban abortion 22 weeks following gestation, and amendment C, which would have reformed lottery regulations for charitable organizations. In sum, however, statewide election outcomes resulted in an uncharacteristic number of policy changes, many with important economic consequences. Unified Democratic government remained in place in Denver, which set the stage for the 2021–2022 budget cycle. The three sections that follow discuss the state’s demographics, revenue, and spending.The Census Bureau estimates the state’s population in 2020 to be 5.7 million residents, which is an increase of 14.8 percent from 2010. This population increase has outpaced growth in new housing units over the past decade. Only Utah and Texas have experienced larger growth rates since 2010. Colorado joined Oregon, Montana, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina as the six states that gained at least one seat in the House of Representatives following reapportionment. Because of the redistricting reforms approved by voters in 2018, boundaries for all eight congressional districts will be drawn by an independent redistricting commission. Table 1 presents further demographic and economic data from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics for Denver County, Colorado, and the United States. The pre-pandemic unemployment rate in Colorado commonly fluctuated between 2 and 3 percent. At the beginning of 2020, the state’s unemployment rate stood at just 2.7 percent. Job losses from the COVID recession produced double-digit unemployment figures for three consecutive months in the spring, with a maximum of 12.1 percent unemployment in April . Industries disproportionately affected included retail trade, accommodation, hospitality, food service, arts, entertainment, and recreation. Similar to patterns in other states, job losses in Colorado were sharper and longer lasting among lower-income earners. State economists reported a change in employment among lower-income individuals of about 35 percent from January to May 2020. After reaching an apex in April, unemployment figures have improved or remained steady in each month thereafter. BLS data indicate that Colorado unemployment returned to single digits in July 2020 and fell below 7 percent in October. Unemployment levels in the state steadily decreased by a monthly average of 0.14 percent, reaching a pandemic low of 5.1 percent in November. According to one estimate, the state had recovered about 85 percent of the COVID job losses, which is better than the national average, but only one metropolitan area—Colorado Springs—had so far exceeded pre-pandemic employment levels . The civilian labor force participation rates of 72.2 percent in Denver County and 67.6 percent in Colorado are both better than the national figure of 63 percent.Per capita and household income levels in Colorado and Denver County remained greater than the national average. Median home prices in the state and county were likewise substantially above the median home price in the United States . The influx of new residents coupled with high real estate prices has kept affordable housing a persistent problem, particularly in the Denver metro area and many mountain communities across the state. For example, large plastic pots the Crested Butte city council recently declared a housing emergency while debating policy reforms to address the affordable housing crisis, including a one-year moratorium on short-term rental licenses. The city was also considering other measures, including easing restrictions on camping and imposing greater taxes on rental or vacation properties. Other innovative efforts to increase the availability of affordable housing in places such as Ouray, Ridgway, and Telluride included revising zoning ordinances to permit greater resident density. Efforts also included designating housing as only available to the local workforce by attaching income and deed restrictions to certain property developments. The rapid growth of the state’s population has also had effects on the composition of the Colorado electorate. According to the state’s active voter rolls, a plurality of voters in Colorado are registered as unaffiliated . Thirty percent of the electorate is registered Democratic, and Republican registration places third at 27.3 percent .
The proportion of unaffiliated voters increased by nearly 5 percentage points since the 2016 election. Contributing factors to this increase are election reforms passed in 2016, which replaced the existing caucus system with a presidential primary, and a second reform that allowed unaffiliated voters to participate in the party primary of their choice. Unaffiliated voters were previously prohibited from participating in primary elections or caucus meetings. Voters in Colorado who self-identified as unaffiliated or independent voted 55-40 in favor of the Democratic ticket in the 2020 presidential election, while the split among ideological moderates was 65-30 in favor of Biden/Harris . Regarding the racial and gender composition of the electorate, exit poll data from 2020 estimate white voters to constitute 79 percent of the electorate. Latino and Latina voters were the largest non-white voting bloc at 12 percent of voters, while the proportion of Black voters was about 3 percent . These numbers, however, do not reflect the actual size of racial minority groups in the state. According to Census data, Colorado’s Hispanic population is nearly 22 percent, the Black population is 4.6 percent, and the Native American population is 1.6 percent. A plurality of the state’s voters in 2020 were white women . An additional 35 percent of ballots were cast by white men. White women voted Democratic in the presidential election by a 2-1 margin, while Biden received 49 percent of the state’s white male vote to Trump’s 48 percent .Decreased economic activity and substantial job losses beginning in March 2020 resulted in a projected decline in state revenue for the first time since 2009. The Office of State Planning & Budgeting revenue forecast projected an overall decrease in state revenue of 4.7 percent to $12.3 billion in the 2020–21 fiscal year . This was a substantial decrease in state revenue but an improvement upon earlier projections, which previously estimated a percentage drop in revenues exceeding double digits. Revenues for the 2021–22 fiscal year, however, are predicted to return to pre-pandemic levels. Prior to the COVID pandemic, individual income tax revenues grew by nearly 5 percent. The projected decline in income tax revenue during the first year of the pandemic was 8.1 percent totaling $8.2 billion . The OPSB projects income tax revenue to rebound in 2022 and beyond—however, not reaching pre-pandemic growth levels, claiming that the “reduction is expected to be short-lived and mitigated by the fact that low income earners were disproportionately impacted by the pandemic” . Such a turnaround would be critical to Colorado’s economic recovery as income taxes represent about two-thirds of General Fund revenues. Corporate income tax collections were also deeply affected by the pandemic and fell by 20.8 percent to $728.3 million in the 2019–20 fiscal year. Economists predict that corporate taxes will continue in a downward trajectory by an additional 10 percent in 2021. Unlike income and corporate taxes, sales tax revenues increased during the pandemic on account of increased online shopping and a gradual rebound in retail sales. Overall, sales tax revenue increased 4.7 percent in 2020, with state projections for an additional 6.5 percent this year. Beginning this year, Colorado will also generate a greater amount of cigarette tax revenue, which equaled $32.5 million in 2020, following the passage of proposition EE. Cigarette taxes increased from 84 cents to $1.94 per pack in 2021 and will reach $2.64 in 2027. Tax rates on other tobacco products, including vaping products containing nicotine, will similarly increase to 62 percent in 2027.Governor Polis’ budget proposal for the 2021–2022 fiscal year proposed a total funds budget of $35.4 billion, which is a 9 percent increase from the prior year. The General Fund spending budget of $13.6 billion is a 20 percent increase of $2.25 billion. His letter to the Joint Budget Committee began by noting the extraordinary challenges and opportunities brought about by the global pandemic, an economic recession, the Black Lives Matter movement for racial justice, and historic wildfires and other natural disasters. Introducing his second budget since the pandemic began, Polis stated, “Each of these crises has exposed weaknesses in our systems of public health and health care, commerce, and education, and highlighted the urgency to take bold climate action in order to protect our Colorado way of life. To meet the moment and to build resiliency for the future, we must make critical investments to position Colorado for a strong, inclusive, and rapid recovery. Colorado will not only recover from these crises, but together we will build back stronger than before” .