The first alternative system is the semi-intensive system. The main goal in this system is to improve the provision of private goods, i.e. increased meat production and improved labor conditions. Several enabling conditions at farm level were identified to reach this end . This alternative system would fit better in the southernmost and flat areas where crop diversification is easier to implement. The second alternative system is the high-tech extensive system. The aim is to improve farms’ profitability by reducing feeding costs based on an improved pasture management. Participants highlighted the need for the innovation in herd geo-location, weather information and wild fauna surveillance . In addition, subsidies are essential in this system to support the provision of public goods as well as a legal framework to regulate and protect the access to land for grazing purposes. This alternative system would be more suitable in the northernmost and mountainous locations, where there are more pasture lands and geography makes other types of farming systems less appropriate. Current challenges, such as the reduced consumption of lamb meat by consumers, the lack of workforce and the increasing feeding costs,bato bucket are still important in the future alternative systems.
The feeding costs are more important in the semi-intensive alternative system due to a greater dependency of feed inputs and lower dependency on the availability of pastures. On the other hand, wild fauna attacks will only pose a challenge in the high-tech extensive alternative system. In the alternative systems, all main functions are expected to increase in a moderate way . The gross margins would increase in both systems, although margins seem to differ depending on the degree of intensification or extensification of the farms, as well as the areas where the farms are located. The increase in gross margin in both systems is the main change that is expected to allow to increase the number of sheep and farms, and are therefore moving away from other critical thresholds as well. The location of the farm determines the agro-ecological potential and the access to markets . Thus, the semi-intensive alternative system is more likely in the flat areas where pastures are more scarce and payments for the less favorable areas are not applicable . In the high-tech extensive alternative system, the production is not expected to change. However, its performance in less favored areas and the provision of public goods services is supported by European subsidies that could increase the current margins. Greater gross margins would lead to a greater number of farms in the farming system, although this increase would be limited by the access to lands in the high-tech extensive system. The increase of the number of sheep is expected in both alternative systems, although this increment would be greater in the high-tech extensive alternative system. According to participants the lower production in this system would be compensated with greater herd sizes.
While some resilience attributes of the farming system are expected to improve in both alternative systems, participants agreed that all the resilience attributes of the FS could improve in the high-tech extensive system . The “social self-organization” resilience attribute in the high-tech extensive system would be improved as cooperation is needed to manage pastures and herds; it can also be argued that “production coupled to the local and natural capital” will improve as herd feeding will be coupled to the availability of pasture lands; and “diverse policies” will be enhanced as new policies will be tailored to support the provision of the public goods provided by the farming system. Moving towards the semi-intensive alternative scenario could constrain the resilience attributes “production coupled to the local and natural capital” and “diverse policies” leading to a deeper unbalance between the economic, social and environmental dimensions. Several current strategies, with currently low implementation levels, could be enhanced in the alternative systems. Some current strategies are compatible with the alternative farming systems. These strategies are mainly oriented to the economic domain, specifically related to the on-farm economic administration . Moreover, there were several new strategies identified during the workshop that match with current strategies .
Most of these strategies are economic strategies such as opening new marketing channels and developing new financial products and sales contracts that contribute to increase the robustness of the farming system to face hard times. Some institutional strategies are related to the public awareness campaigns about the positive contribution of the extensive sheep farming system to nature conservation and health. In the system, public awareness is expected to stimulate lamb meat consumption, which results in improved incomes. Public awareness is also expected to improve regulations for improving management of pastures, which in turn could lead to even more public awareness. Most of the strategies proposed in the workshop are applicable for both systems and are mainly related to the need for improved technologies and innovation . The number of proposed strategies was higher for the high-tech extensive system. The extra strategies in this system relate to the environmental and social domains, due to its more environmental-based and social nature. Institutional changes need to be made that improve the access to lands and the management of pasture lands, and the recognition of the farming system’s contribution to the conservation of natural resources. This is expected to pay off in the economic domain, through subsidies and the lower feeding costs due to the use of pastures. Social measures are related to the promotion of generational renewal, which would increase the workforce in the farming system.
The workforce availability improves the farmers’ quality of life, stimulating the attractiveness of the farming system. The quality of life is also improved with the implementation of new technology related to management of pastures and animal handling – in the semi-intensive alternative system the animal handling strategies are very important, mainly related to sanitary and production issues. The technology and innovation requires the cooperation between different actors in the exchange of knowledge and training in the technology . The cooperation between farmers is also expected to increase the bargaining power and margins. In any case, strategies regarding innovation and cooperation among system actors would be necessary, no matter what future system unfolds . It should be noted that the import of feed in the semi-intensive system reduces the coupling of production with local and natural resources. This could result in an opposite direction where, because of a worsening public image, less meat is consumed and regulations are getting stricter. In both alternative systems, several strategies are oriented to technology implementation. The implementation of new technology generally does not allow for experimentation because of the great investments involved in new technology. For instance, in the high-tech extensive system the use of satellite images or the GPS per ewe is expensive. In the semi-intensive system, the replacement of more prolific ewes requires high investments. Strategies with low investment costs are related to the sanitary prevention, which lend robustness to the farming system , or the coordination among actors. The probability of unfolding the high-tech extensive alternative system is expected to be larger than that of the semi-intensive system. The reason is that the semi-intensive system is going to compete with other intensive farming systems that are more profitable.
The high-tech extensive system might highlight its importance in the contribution to the public goods and the conservation of the local breed Rasa aragonesa. As mentioned before, the greater availability of pastures makes the high-tech extensive system more suitable to mid-mountain areas. Farmers mentioned the high-tech extensive system as the preferable option in the future but also the most complicated to accomplish, especially without supporting policies in place. Besides, some of the technology for pasture lands and herds management is still in a development phase. In contrast, the lower presence of pastures in flat areas of the farming system make the semi-intensive systems more appropriate in those areas. Participants pointed out that both alternative systems could attract young people to the farming system. Riedel et al. have related young farmers to a greater dynamism and technology adoption in the ovine production system and to the reduction of shepherding. Based on the challenges, enabling conditions and strategies of the current and alternative systems, the extensive ovine farming system in the province of Huesca seems to be most compatible with a scenario on a pathway to higher sustainability with improved attention for the maintenance of natural resources , especially in the case of a high-tech extensive system. Compatibility with Eur-Agri-SSP1 is largely due to the increment of support for environmental services. As the current system is close to collapse, the compatibility with a scenario where the status quo is maintained as much as possible for the current state is limited. The establishment of the semi-intensive system is more compatible with Eur-Agri-SSP2 due to its production orientation. Eur-Agri-SSP3, with regional rivalry leading to amongst others slow technological process, is moderately to strongly incompatible with the current system and the alternative systems. In Eur-Agri-SSP3, specifically for the semi-intensive system, the lack of internationalization of markets, and for the high-tech extensive system the lack of environmental services valorization reduces compatibility. The semi-intensification of the farming system is evaluated as the only alternative system moderately compatible with Eur-Agri-SSP4, a scenario driven primarily by increasing social inequality, and Eur-Agri-SSP5, dutch bucket hydroponic a scenario primarily driven by improvements in technology.
The high-tech extensive system is even less compatible with Eur-Agri-SSP4 and EurAgri-SSP5 than the current system. Although the high-tech extensive system is most compatible with Eur-Agri-SSP1, the semi-intensive system seems the safest bet regarding its overall compatibility with all Eur-AgriSSPs .The outcome of the workshop suggested that, currently, the social, economic and environmental performance of extensive sheep farming system in Huesca, Spain is poor and declining. This is a common trend in Europe. Strijker explained that increasing opportunities outside agriculture, lower product prices, and higher land prices explained the continuous decline of extensive livestock grazing systems in several rural areas across Europe. Bernu´es et al. found that the lack of generational succession and the high opportunity cost of labour are also drivers of the disappearance of livestock farming in European Mediterranean countries. Most challenges, system functions and resilience attributes seem to be at or beyond critical thresholds, indicating simultaneously low sustainability and low resilience levels. Interactions between critical thresholds of challenges, functions and resilience attributes across levels and domains are perceived to be present. This emphasizes the importance of including multiple levels and domains when studying the sustainability and resilience of farming systems. This also emphasizes the complementarity between sustainability and resilience, albeit in a negative sense. Overall, the effect of exceeding thresholds is expected to strongly reduce system performance in terms of sustainability and resilience. Economic viability at farm level plays a pivotal role regarding interacting thresholds. Participants indicated that exceeding the critical threshold for gross margin would result in a collapse of the farming system. This supports the idea that interacting indicators being close to critical thresholds at lower levels increase the vulnerability of the focal system . Interestingly, the level of gross margin is artificially maintained by subsidies that farms receive. This suggests a current focus on mainly economic sustainability, which in the long run may not be sustainable at all: subsidies may keep the fast responding “gross margin” away from critical thresholds, while the indicators relating to slower processes such as declining access to pastures in the environmental domain and lower attractiveness of the countryside in the social domain are not countered. Amalgamation of farms and livestock partly slows down the decline in sheep numbers and subsequent lower maintenance of the landscape. However, in the absence of subsidies and the limitations in managing huge herds, amalgamation is no longer profitable, which explains why participants expected a collapse. Biggs et al. mention that large shifts in socio-ecological systems are uncommon. The provisioning of agricultural subsidies could be seen as a main reason for continuing the status quo in some other agricultural systems in Europe as well.