The size of this group is larger than the number of new residents who moved from any state in the union. Among current U.S. residents who moved to Colorado, the largest shares arrived from California , Texas , Florida , Arizona , Illinois , New York , Virginia , Missouri , Georgia , and North Carolina . The most popular destinations for Coloradoans moving out of state were California, Texas, Washington, Arizona, and Florida. Because most of these population gains have occurred along the Front Range and in the Denver metro area, the housing market in the state’s largest city remains one of the least affordable in the nation. Among U.S. metropolitan areas, the Denver housing market is the most expensive of any city not located in a coastal state. Median home prices in Denver exceeded the national average by more than $100,000 in 2017, and the average price of a single-family homes sold in Denver exceeded $500,000 for the first time in February 2018 . Many residents priced out of the home-buying market have also encountered affordability challenges in the rental market. According to one real estate research firm, plant plastic pots apartment rental rates in Denver have increased by nearly 50 percent since 2010. This is the largest increase in rent for any city outside of the San Francisco Bay area. Increased demand for housing units has spurred development in the Denver metro area as evidenced by the construction of 23,000 new apartments between 2016 and 2017 .
A growth in the number of available housing units has increased the vacancy rate in the metro area to 6.4 percent in 2018. This figure is the highest seen in Denver since the 2009 recession. It has also resulted in a modest reversal in the long-term trend of rent increases, as the median monthly rental price in Denver decreased to $1,353 from $1,370 at the end of the third quarter in 2017. Table 1 reports selected data from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics for Denver County, Colorado, and the United States. As seen in Table 1, per capita and household income in Denver and Colorado remain above the national average. The OSBP projects personal income in Colorado to outpace the national average of 3.1 percent in 2017 with a 5.4 percent growth rate .The 2017 population estimate for Colorado is slightly greater than 5.6 million people. Colorado remains one of the fastest growing states in the nation, although population growth has slowed during the past year. After reaching nearly 2 percent in 2015, population growth fell to 1.4 percent in 2017. This figure remains twice the national growth rate of 0.7 percent. The state projects the number of residents to increase to 5.8 million by the 2020 Census. For most racial minority groups, the state is less diverse than the nation as a whole. Native Americans are one exception to this, as the share of those with American Indian heritage is slightly greater in Denver County and Colorado compared to their percentage nationally . The proportion of residents who identify as Hispanic or Latino is also greater in Colorado and Denver County than in the entire country .
The Census estimates that 13.2 percent of current U.S. residents were born abroad. Among all Coloradoans, the percentage of foreign-born residents is about 3 percentage points lower, while the percent foreign born residing in Denver County is nearly 3 percentage points greater.The BLS estimates that Colorado’s unemployment rate in December 2017 was 3.0 percent, while Denver’s unemployment rate was 2.9 percent . Earlier in 2017, the state unemployment reached a record low of 2.3 percent. The other six metropolitan statistical areas tracked by the BLS averaged an unemployment rate of 3.4 percent. Fort Collins had the lowest unemployment rate at 2.5 percent. Only two cities had an unemployment rate greater than the national unemployment rate of 4.1 percent—Grand Junction and Pueblo . Personal income growth among state residents reached nearly 8 percent in 2014, but growth slowed over the next two years. This trend reversed in 2017 as personal income growth increased to 5.4 percent. This growth rate exceeds the national rate by more than 2 percentage points . According to the OSPB, per capita income and wage growth in Colorado over the past year also outpaced the national figures. With regard to party registration in Colorado, voters were nearly evenly divided among Democratic, Republican, and unaffiliated categories at the time of the 2016 election. According to voter registration data from the Secretary of State’s office, the state had nearly 3.3 million active voters in November 2016. A plurality of these voters registered as unaffiliated , while the share of Democratic and Republican were nearly equivalent. In February 2018, the number of active voters decreased relative to November 2016 by about 1.7 percent.
This may be partially attributable to controversy surrounding President Donald Trump’s Commission on Voter Fraud, which made data privacy a concern after the commission requested, “voluminous information on voters, including names, addresses, dates of birth, political affiliations and the last four digits of Social Security numbers, along with voting history” . Fifteen months after the 2016 election, the proportion of unaffiliated voters in the state increased to 36.3 percent, while the share of Democrats and Republicans decreased to 31.1 percent and 30.8 percent, respectively . This change is likely driven by primary election reforms approved by voters in the 2016 election. Voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 107, which adopted a presidential primary in lieu of the existing caucus system, and Proposition 108, which allowed unaffiliated voters to participate in the party primary of their choice. Previously, unaffiliated voters were prohibited from participating in any primary elections or caucus meetings. Because this reform allows unaffiliated voters to participate in the primary of their choosing, it appears that a substantial number of Coloradans changed their party registration status to take advantage of this new opportunity.Colorado’s economic trajectory remains generally positive. In late March, the Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting released its revised economic forecast. The report summarized the condition of Colorado’s economy by stating, “Colorado’s economy is on solid footing with strong employment growth and expectations of an ongoing expansion. New business formation continues to grow, while Colorado oil production is at record levels. Although much of the state’s economic growth has occurred along the Front Range, stabilizing farmland values and increases in energy prices and production have recently supported rural areas as well. Looking forward, higher costs of living and tight labor market conditions are expected to constrain further growth through the forecast period” . The OSPB characterized the 3.1 percent increase in General Fund revenue in the 2016–2017 fiscal year as decreases in oil, gas, and other commodity prices as the catalysts for the three-year decline in corporate tax revenue beginning in 2014. After falling 21.9 percent in the third year of this recent decline, corporate tax revenue is estimated to increase by 38.6 percent in the current fiscal year. In addressing how federal tax reform may affect state corporate tax revenue, the OSPB projects continued growth in corporate tax revenue, but cautions that “future increases will be constrained by higher business costs, especially for employee compensation, black plastic pots which will reduce profit margins and result in lower tax liabilities” . Taxes from the state’s legal marijuana market continue to grow. According to data released by the Colorado Department of Revenue, total marijuana sales surpassed $1.5 billion in 2017 . Of this total, $1.09 billion in sales came from the retail market, while medical marijuana sales were approximately $0.42 billion. Table 2 reports annual marijuana sales and tax revenue data. Sales have increased each calendar year since the retail market began operation on January 1, 2014, but the growth rate has gradually declined each year. In 2014, marijuana sales totaled nearly $680 million. This figure increased by 45.7 percent in 2015 to $990 million. Sales increased by 31.3 percent and surpassed the $1 billion mark for the first time in 2016 to reach a total of $1.3 billion. Total sales in 2017 amounted to $1.5 billion, which represents a 15.3 percent increase.
If the trend continues, Colorado could expect to see sales numbers plateau since the growth rate has decreased by an average of 15 percentage points each year. Sales data through September 2018 indicate sales of nearly $1.16 billion. The monthly sales average for 2018 puts the state on track for an annual marijuana sales total of about $1.54 billion, which would be the largest sales amount to date and constitute a slight increase of 2.4 percent from 2017.State revenue from the medical and retail marijuana markets in the form of taxes and fees reached nearly $250 million in 2017. This is a 27.8 percent increase from 2016 following a 48.5 percent increase in tax revenue from 2015 to 2016. During the first 10 months of 2018, the state reported tax and fee revenues of $223 million. A linear projection of tax revenue for the remainder of the year suggests that the annual tax revenue would reach nearly $268 million, an increase of about 8 percent from the prior year. The largest annual increase in marijuana taxGovernor Hickenlooper’s November letter to the JBC highlighted education and the criminal justice system as two areas where additional investments were necessary . The proposed and enacted funding levels for state departments and changes from the prior year’s budget are reported in Table 3. In total, the General Fund budget request is $11.5 billion, which is an increase of $292.1 million from the prior year. This represents a 2.1 percent increase, while total fund spending is proposed to increase by 3.7 percent to $30.5 billion. The budget signed by the governor into law on April 30 authorized a General Fund budget of $11.42 billion and $30.63 billion in total fund spending . As the data reported in Table 3 indicate, the governor’s budget proposes increasing the funding levels of all state department relative to last year, exempting the Department of Local Affairs and Department of Labor and Employment. The final budget ultimately increased the funding levels for all state departments except for Labor and Employment. The median proposed increase is 5.1 percent, while the enacted budget imposes a median departmental spending increase of 5.7 percent. In addition to funding existing government programs, the governor’s budget proposed new spending initiatives for the Department of Health Care Policy and Financing , Higher Education , K-12 Education , Department of Corrections , and Department of Human Services , in addition to an increase in the General Funds reserve .Relative to last year’s budget, Governor Hickenlooper’s budget request for the 2018– 2019 fiscal year is much more optimistic. This positive tone is a product of a good economic climate and the successful passage of a major budgetary reform in the prior session. Transitioning hospital provider fees into a government enterprise fund made these funds TABOR exempt. In the 2016–2017 fiscal year, hospital provider fee revenue was $654.4 million. In future years, these funds do not count toward the TABOR revenue cap. The governor emphasized the importance of this reform by noting that “The passage of S.B. 17-267 has materially and positively changed the State’s financial outlook compared with one year ago, when the request had to close a $500 million funding gap in the General Fund” . Beyond this important budgetary reform, Governor Hickenlooper also lauded the strong upward trajectory of the state’s economy by claiming, “Colorado’s economy continues to outperform nearly every state and the national economy overall” . Statewide unemployment remains low and job creation numbers are strong—approximately 53,000 new jobs are projected for 2018. As the state’s population continues to grow, Hickenlooper’s budget request reflects spending priorities to address increased demand for certain state services. Increases in education spending are one of the most notable aspects of the budget request. K-12 spending is proposed to increase by $84.6 million, which represents an increase of $343.38 per student. According to state estimates, the 178 school districts in Colorado currently serve the educational needs of more than 865,000 students. The Department of Education projects that enrollments will grow by 0.7 percent in the current fiscal year. The education budget request remarks that “additional funding proposed by the Governor will allow local districts and charter schools to decide how to best improve the education opportunities of their students.” As required by Amendment 23, the inflationary increase to the State Education Fund amounts to $8.9 million.